Brian Kearney

Insto Investor's CLIPDESK

Good podcasts are an invaluable source of unfiltered, finger-on-the-pulse insights from industry experts, but the numerous episodes released each week give us, the listeners, a rather expensive Paradox of Choice in finding content worth listening to.

I've built a tool that helps me filter relevant episodes each week and (generally with the help of my AI Voice Assistant while driving) I clip the best sections, and throw in a couple of my own observations, as a taster menu for you to choose from. I plan to update the list twice a week and will post via LinkedIn when new content is added (subscribe to the LinkedIn newsletter or join the email list).

Latest edition

12 November 2026

102 new episodes (95 hours listening) published by the 50 podcasts on the list. 41 highlight clips below (119 mins total).

Investment 12 November 2026 · 41 clips

In Good Company (Norges Bank)

Mike MilkenMilken Center for Advancing the American Dream

Mike Milken built the high-yield bond market from the mid-1970s and puts the companies he helped finance at perhaps 3,000; at 80 he funds medical research and education, and opened a centre in Washington on the American Dream last year.

Hosted by

Nicolai Tangen

11 November 2026 · 39m 27s · 1 clip below

  1. current issue

    Mike Milken says private credit differs little from public high-yield debt, except that managers can charge perhaps three to five times as much to run it.

    On his account the danger is a mismatch of maturities: 95% to 99% of the investors are long-term, quarterly redemptions by individuals may be around 1% of assets, and Silicon Valley Bank failed holding government bonds funded short. He adds that the heavy losses of 2007 to 2010 were in securities rated AAA to single A, not in non-investment grade debt.

    4m 36s · from 22:11

Alpha Exchange

Meredith WhitneyMeredith Whitney Advisory Group

Founder and chief executive of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, known for asking at the end of October 2007, with the S&P 500 at an all-time high, whether Citigroup would need to cut its dividend. She covered specialty finance and subprime lenders at Oppenheimer in the 1990s.

Hosted by

Dean Curnutt

9 November 2026 · 42m 52s · 2 clips below

  1. 1 of 2 current issue

    Meredith Whitney says US banks have cut their home equity lines from close to $700 billion to $290 billion, while household home equity rose from $9 trillion to about $35 trillion.

    Whitney traces it to more than $70 billion of post-crisis fines and penalties, which sent lenders back to prime and super-prime borrowers over the following years; on her estimate about half of US households can still open a deposit account but cannot get a credit card or most other credit from a bank. Untaxed COVID cheques lifted that group's after-tax income, which fell sharply when they stopped.

    2m 51s · from 22:50

  2. 2 of 2 current issue

    Meredith Whitney names earned-wage access, which costs close to 200% a year when priced like a credit card, as the fastest-growing lending product at Chime, Dave and Block.

    She sets it beside the pawn lenders, among this year's best-performing financial stocks, which report borrowers leaving pledges unredeemed even after large tax refunds. Home equity extraction is now the quickest-expanding loan at banks, and grocery spending has run flat to negative, which she reads as households putting fuel first.

    2m 50s · from 25:37

Invest Like the Best

Zach ReitanoRo

Co-founder and chief executive of Ro, which he describes as the leading GLP-1 provider in the US, grown from about a $250 million to over a $3 billion run rate in four years with fewer staff than in 2021.

Hosted by

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

11 November 2026 · 1h 24m · 1 clip below

  1. current issue

    Zach Reitano of Ro says GLP-1 prices fell from $1,300 to $149 once drugmakers sold direct to patients, and the drugmakers made more money.

    On his account the pharmacy benefit manager and the insurer drop out of a cash sale, and with them the gap between a list price and the $300 to $400 actually paid behind the scenes. Lilly's results, he says, show volume outrunning the price cuts, where branded drugs otherwise rise 6 to 8% a year until the patent cliff.

    2m 43s · from 5:32

Excess Returns

Jim PaulsenPaulsen Perspectives

Jim Paulsen publishes economic and market research at Paulsen Perspectives and joins Excess Returns each month to walk through his charts.

Hosted by

Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand

11 November 2026 · 1h 6m · 3 clips below

  1. 1 of 3 current issue

    Jim Paulsen splits US real GDP in two: the 86% outside technology investment has grown 0.7% over the past year, while the 14% in information processing, software and intellectual property grew about 15%.

    On his reading the 2% headline is an average of a recession-like economy and a boom, with stall speed usually put near 2%. He argues no single policy fits that: monetary policy and the dollar act on both halves at once, when one needs slowing and the other needs help.

    2m 54s · from 9:00

  2. 2 of 3 current issue

    Jim Paulsen calculates that technology and communication services have gone from just over 20% of S&P 500 market value a decade ago to about half.

    An investor who has bought nothing since has drifted with it, and on his figures volatility in that half now runs about 2.7 to 2.8 times the rest, up from 1.6 at the start of the bull market. Federal Reserve household data put equities' share of financial assets at a post-war record, and the American Association of Individual Investors' stock-minus-cash reading has been exceeded only at the dot-com top.

    4m 15s · from 38:17

  3. 3 of 3 current issue

    Jim Paulsen ranks today's 2.1% US real GDP growth as slower than 82% of non-recession periods since 1948.

    Year-on-year payroll gains of about 0.5% rank below 86% of them and consumption at 2.5% below 73%, and the 2010 to 2020 recovery, when the Fed held its rate near zero for almost a decade, ran at the same pace. On those rankings he finds the Fed's description of the economy as strong unsupported by the data.

    2m 42s · from 20:18

The Real Eisman Playbook

My Brutally Honest Thoughts About the AI Bubble.

No guest: Steve Eisman delivers the episode as a solo lecture.

Hosted by

Steve Eisman

9 November 2026 · 40m 15s · 2 clips below

  1. 1 of 2 current issue

    Steve Eisman counts well over 65% of the S&P 500 as tied to AI once the utilities, industrials and banks serving the build-out are added to technology.

    He builds the figure sector by sector, from information technology at 40% to 50% with Google and Amazon, and finds, as far as he can tell, only staples and healthcare, 14% of the index, clear of it. Corporate bonds give less escape than they appear to: about 15% of those outstanding are AI-related, against over 50% of this year's issuance.

    1m 50s · from 10:02

  2. 2 of 2 current issue

    Steve Eisman estimates most of private equity's 2017 to 2022 software buyouts have lost about half their value, which on the typical 50% debt leaves the equity close to nothing.

    He takes Adobe's 60% fall from its February 2024 high as the proxy and shades it to 50% to be conservative, with cybersecurity the exception, and thinks software embedded deeply in a client's operations probably keeps its moat. He expects the losses to show when the buyout loans refinance next year: too small to hurt the economy, he thinks, but likely to hurt private equity investors a lot.

    2m 08s · from 14:21

a16z

Mike Volpi

Mike Volpi joined Cisco in 1994 and ran much of its M&A through the late-1990s internet buildout; his team made about 70 acquisitions that grew to half of the company's revenue, then about $30 billion. He retired in 2023 and has since started a new venture fund.

Hosted by

Raghu Raghuram and Guido Appenzeller

11 November 2026 · 56m 06s · 2 clips below

  1. 1 of 2 current issue

    Mike Volpi and a16z's hosts find four-year-old Nvidia H100s renting at $2.50 to $3 an hour, above the $1.80 to $2 they fetched new, on a chip once given perhaps a five-year useful life.

    Volpi reads it as a gift to whoever finances GPUs on business models built for a short life. The counter in the room is that debt investors have not broadly accepted the longer life, and that once chips are plentiful, token revenue per watt would retire H100s in favour of Blackwell and Vera Rubin, with the scarcity sitting in semiconductor manufacturing for now.

    4m 05s · from 9:59

  2. 2 of 2 explainer

    Cisco's collapse, as Mike Volpi tells it, traces to customers who had double-ordered through a shortage, then cancelled when demand eased, cutting orders to about a quarter of their peak.

    Cisco had paid its suppliers up front to secure parts, so it carried the inventory risk when the orders went; a company that had not missed a quarter in a decade of public trading missed by perhaps 35% to 40%, and by his recollection the shares went from about $80 to $9 within six months. The warning came as a soft December, normal for the season, followed by a January that never recovered.

    2m 10s · from 44:01

Excess Returns

Mike HunstadNorthern Trust Asset Management

Mike Hunstad is president of Northern Trust Asset Management, which oversees about $1.5 trillion, and spent much of his earlier career in quantitative and factor investing and portfolio construction.

Hosted by

Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau

9 November 2026 · 1h 0m · 3 clips below

  1. 1 of 3 current issue

    Mike Hunstad of Northern Trust Asset Management says the wealthiest 20% of US households account for about 40% of consumer spending.

    His case is that this group is richer than ever after equities roughly doubled in five years, with property prices and interest income up too, and that its propensity to spend out of wealth has more than doubled since COVID. With consumption about 70% of US GDP, he reads that wealth effect, and not the daily headlines, as what has carried the economy.

    2m 21s · from 4:18

  2. 2 of 3 framework

    Mike Hunstad of Northern Trust Asset Management attributes most active equity managers' underperformance to the stocks they underweighted to fund their best ideas.

    Every overweight is paid for by an underweight, and Hunstad argues managers bring less conviction to the second, so unintended concentration in a sector, region or single security does the damage. His rough figure, which he says he does not have in front of him, is about 80% of active equity managers trailing their benchmarks over one, three and five years.

    2m 45s · from 57:36

  3. 3 of 3 current issue

    Mike Hunstad of Northern Trust Asset Management estimates AI accounts for a little more than half of the total risk in the S&P 500.

    Hunstad extends the point from the US index to developed-market indices as a whole, so on his account an equity allocation is now essentially an AI bet.

    1m 00s · from 31:27

Odd Lots

Nishant Kumar, Michael BallBloomberg News

Nishant Kumar is chief correspondent for hedge funds at Bloomberg News and has covered the industry for 16 years. Michael Ball is a macro strategist at Bloomberg News.

Hosted by

Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal

11 November 2026 · 51m 58s · 1 clip below

  1. current issue

    Millennium, Balyasny, Point72 and ExodusPoint all lost money in October together, Millennium down 2.3% in the month for a fund that compounds at about 14% a year.

    Kumar's point is that the losses crossed strategies: equities, macro and credit books fell at once, where in a normal bad month one offsets another. He measures the damage against the job, since pension and sovereign funds hold these vehicles to soften a sell-off and do not expect them to keep up with the S&P 500 in a rally.

    Audio streamed from the publisher.

    3m 02s · from 3:39

Monetary Matters

Laks GanapathiUnicus Research

Laks Ganapathi founded Unicus Research and Minerva Investment Management, a short-biased fund where Michael Burry has joined as a senior adviser. Her team is working through the loan books of about 150 private credit funds.

Hosted by

Jack Farley

8 November 2026 · 1h 5m · 2 clips below

  1. 1 of 2 current issue

    BlackRock's HPS Corporate Lending Fund, sold through wealth channels with a $2,500 minimum, gated for the first time in March and paid out about $600 million of $1.2 billion in redemption requests.

    Ganapathi's argument is that the structure was built for institutions that knew the lock-up and were paid for it, while the retail holders now inside it, on her reading likely the same people carrying personal loans, card debt and buy-now-pay-later balances, are the first out when fear arrives. She says, on what sources told her, that the wealth managers selling the funds did not read the prospectus.

    3m 57s · from 6:09

  2. 2 of 2 contrarian

    Unicus Research finds Blue Owl's OBDC marking education loans down about 52% of cost and consumer products 20% at 31 March, with internet software only tenth.

    The manager has blamed its redemptions on AI; Ganapathi reads that as a convenient excuse for losses that sit in healthcare providers, consumer goods and education. The host passes on a different reading of the same table that he has heard: a book that is really 40% software can report 10% by filing the rest as healthcare or education software, which Unicus says it is now checking company by company.

    4m 41s · from 34:52

Excess Returns

Peter BoockvarOnePoint BFG Wealth Partners

Chief investment officer of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners and author of The Boock Report, a daily Substack on macro, markets and stocks; he worked for Lee Cooperman in 2013.

Hosted by

Matt Zeigler

8 November 2026 · 1h 1m · 3 clips below

  1. 1 of 3 current issue

    Fitch's private credit default rate has reached a new high of 6.3%, Peter Boockvar notes, while software, the sector that drew this year's worry, is below 0.5%.

    His explanation is refinancing: every day a loan priced in 2021 or earlier comes due and rolls onto today's rates, and the defaults are showing up in healthcare, industrials and consumer products. He also tracks CCC spreads and the leveraged loan index, both weaker, and calls rates high against the 15 years near zero, whatever their place in a longer history.

    1m 30s · from 55:35

  2. 2 of 3 current issue

    Peter Boockvar says CoreWeave has locked itself into building leases of around 30 years while renting out the compute inside them on three- to five-year terms.

    IREN, by contrast, owns its land, buildings and chips. Boockvar's worry is that GPU rental rates fall, as technology prices historically have, just as CoreWeave's debt costs have risen, and he reads its swaps near 1,200 basis points as the market pricing about a 60% chance of default against an equity still worth $25 to $30 billion.

    3m 07s · from 15:51

  3. 3 of 3 current issue

    Saudi Aramco, as Peter Boockvar relays it, puts two years on rebuilding oil stocks even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened fully today, after about 3 billion barrels failed to pass in eight months.

    Of the missing barrels, about 2 billion were rerouted through the East-West and other pipelines and about 1 billion drawn from commercial and government reserves, which have to be refilled on top of steady demand. Boockvar adds that US shale, which took output from about 5 to about 14 million barrels a day over 15 years, is levelling off, with the Permian on the cusp of a plateau, and that producers are still paying down debt and buying back stock.

    3m 12s · from 37:55

Latent Space

Garrett Lord, Sahil Bhaiwala, Nishant Ranka, Nick Magazine, Jonas Mueller, Collin Schweiker and Steve KellingHandshake AI

Handshake AI builds training data and evaluations for frontier AI labs and, by the episode's own account, reached roughly $1 billion in annualised gross revenue within about a year of launch. Collin Schweiker, who walks through the finance benchmark, spent 13 years in finance at a bulge-bracket bank, in energy and then real estate private equity.

Hosted by

Latent Space (swyx, Vibhu and RJ)

9 November 2026 · 2h 43m · 1 clip below

  1. explainer

    Handshake AI gave an agent an ordinary loan application, and it marked up the borrower's price on a geographic risk overlay, a form of redlining, before sending the package to the loan committee.

    Nothing in the request or the documents was adversarial: a memo noted that no disparate impact analysis had yet been run on the pricing framework, and the agent carried on to finish the task. The committee then sees only a priced package, and to know whether it is lawful it has to repeat the steps the agent was deployed to save.

    4m 32s · from 2:11:39

Hidden Forces

Vincent DeluardStoneX

Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, whose research on currencies and capital flows the host draws on for this conversation.

Hosted by

Demetri Kofinas

9 November 2026 · 51m 23s · 2 clips below

  1. 1 of 2 current issue

    Vincent Deluard says Canada's six largest pension funds keep about 65% of their assets in the US, which he argues probably gives Canada a stronger hand than Mexico in the USMCA talks.

    On his figures the sector holds more than $3 trillion, and the US position has paid twice: US shares returned 15% a year for 15 years while the Canadian dollar fell 30%. Canada now wants capital at home for pipelines and energy projects, and he argues that a threat to bring it back carries weight while the US depends on foreign funding.

    2m 31s · from 34:38

  2. 2 of 2 current issue

    Vincent Deluard says France now shows every marker of a debt crisis: debt at 120% of GDP, a deficit of 5% to 6%, and more than half of it held abroad, much of that in Japan.

    Unlike Italy, whose debt sits mostly with residents, France depends on foreign buyers and cannot print. He traces the politics to years of ostracising both extremes, which has shrunk the governing centre to at most 15% to 20% of voters and points to a runoff between the far left and the far right.

    2m 32s · from 42:46

Capital Allocators

Aydin SenkutFelicis

Founder of Felicis, the venture firm he started 20 years ago with a $41 million first fund and now invests from a fund of close to $1 billion; 91% of its investments are at seed or Series A. Formerly at Google.

Hosted by

Ted Seides

11 November 2026 · 1h 1m · 2 clips below

  1. 1 of 2 contrarian

    Aydin Senkut puts the minimum viable size for a venture fund at half a billion to a billion dollars; once a fund grows far past that, he says, a manager is fighting the public index for basis points instead of multiples.

    His reasoning is that the best companies now reach scale ten times faster and ten times larger, which he feels a sub-billion fund can turn into 3x to 7x funds, while at $5 billion to $15 billion he cannot see how 3x to 5x is reached. He says Felicis needs special reserves for only its top three or four companies, and he concedes it is better at first cheques than follow-ons.

    2m 58s · from 57:55

  2. 2 of 2 framework

    Aydin Senkut's rule of thumb is that acquirers pay around 1 to 2% of their own market value for a company.

    Senkut says Felicis gives 10 to 20% of team time to sorting each holding into its likely exit: a listing now needs $1 billion to $10 billion of revenue, so a niche business is steered toward a private equity sale or early secondary sales. On a Texas company with one bidder, he says that work barely recovered something like 40 to 50 cents on the dollar against zero.

    4m 21s · from 53:36

Merryn Talks Money

Vera German and Juan TorresNeuberger

Portfolio managers on Neuberger's emerging markets equity team, running a concentrated, contrarian value strategy launched six years ago that holds 30 to 70 stocks (usually 40 to 45) for three to five years each and has never owned an Indian company.

Hosted by

Merryn Somerset Webb

9 November 2026 · 48m 02s · 3 clips below

  1. 1 of 3 current issue

    Neuberger's emerging markets value team attributes 70% of the emerging markets index's 24% to 25% gain at this year's peak to three to five stocks, a concentration it calls unprecedented.

    The managers set it against two earlier episodes: the top ten were about 16% of the index at the 2011 commodity peak and roughly 28% to 29% with Chinese tech in 2020, and each was followed by a deeper drawdown than the last. On their account TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung trade with Micron and Broadcom more than with their own domestic banks.

    Audio streamed from the publisher.

    3m 12s · from 7:26

  2. 2 of 3 explainer

    Vera German and Juan Torres of Neuberger see Chinese tech stocks and Indian banks such as HDFC and ICICI fall 7% to 9% on days with no news, as benchmark-aware managers sell them to buy the rising chip names.

    The managers' explanation is tracking error: a fund that must hold more TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix as their weights climb usually pays for them by selling large liquid index names and leaves its researched niche positions alone, and on days the AI trade weakens the flow runs the other way. They pair it with an inconsistency they hear from other investors, who avoid China over the risk of conflict with Taiwan while holding TSMC as their largest position.

    Audio streamed from the publisher.

    2m 44s · from 31:25

  3. 3 of 3 current issue

    Value managers at Neuberger find emerging market consumer staples, long priced at something like 35 times earnings or more, now trading in some cases at around 10 times, while commodity cyclicals have re-rated.

    Staples' earnings have not fallen by two thirds, they say; what changed in 2025 and 2026 is the multiple investors will pay for the middle-class consumption story that made them everyone's favourite EM holding. Cyclicals moved the other way on talk of a new commodity super cycle and stockpiling as trade grows less secure, leaving materials, the sector EM value investors could always count on finding cheap, much harder to find at attractive valuations.

    Audio streamed from the publisher.

    1m 32s · from 29:08

Excess Returns

Robert Hagstrom and Chris MayerEquityCompass; Woodlock House Family Capital

Robert Hagstrom is chief investment officer at EquityCompass and author of The Warren Buffett Way, running a concentrated portfolio over 12 years whose worst year, 2022, was down 28% against 18% for the S&P 500. Chris Mayer co-founded Woodlock House Family Capital and wrote 100 Baggers.

Hosted by

Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski

10 November 2026 · 1h 6m · 1 clip below

  1. framework

    Robert Hagstrom's best holdings at EquityCompass, kept for 10 to 12 years, beat the market in only about two-thirds of quarters and three-quarters of years.

    He reads that hit rate as the price of the long-run payoff: drawdowns and stretches of lagging come with the stocks that made the record, and recalling the study keeps his team from treating a bad month as a broken thesis. Mayer adds that a winner earns less of a manager's attention than a struggler, which is how a changed business gets noticed late.

    2m 18s · from 32:55

Excess Returns

Bob Elliott, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig, Michael Howell, Aahan Menon, John Davi

Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon host the Macro Talk podcast, and Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig appear from Click Beta. Michael Howell, who worked at Salomon Brothers, specialises in global liquidity.

Hosted by

Jack Forehand, Matt Zeigler

9 November 2026 · 44m 29s · 1 clip below

  1. current issue

    Bob Elliott puts today's AI revenue at perhaps $150 billion to $200 billion a year, against the $3 trillion to $4 trillion a year he reckons the roughly $10 trillion buildout expected by 2030 needs to earn a decent return.

    Closing that gap takes exponential growth, and Elliott says the revenue charts that looked parabolic during the summer's token-maxing have since gone linear, with some of the heaviest AI adopters flat for three or four months. Each flat stretch of that length, on his account, leaves the market further from what it has priced.

    2m 30s · from 8:59

Animal Spirits

What the Hell Just Happened?! | Animal Spirits 490

Hosted by

Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson

11 November 2026 · 1h 11m · 1 clip below

  1. current issue

    Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer counted AI stocks 30% below their highs after last week's sell-off, while the S&P 500 excluding AI was up 0.5%.

    On the same Thursday South Korea fell 14% and semiconductors 11%, leaving Korean shares down 40% and chipmakers down a third from their peaks; the hosts read the split as money rotating inside equities, with nobody yet going to cash. They give leverage as the likeliest explanation for the speed of the fall and Monday's rebound, citing a JP Morgan chart of hedge funds cutting gross exposure by the most since 2016.

    3m 03s · from 7:14

Monetary Matters

Cem Karsan and Noel SmithKai Asset Management

Cem Karsan and Noel Smith are co-chief investment officers of Kai Asset Management, a recently formed partnership that builds options positions around macro views and runs a multi-family office beside its funds.

Hosted by

Max Wiethe

9 November 2026 · 1h 5m · 1 clip below

  1. prediction

    Cem Karsan expects US rates to stay structurally higher because debt refinanced near 1% in 2020 and 2021, on five-to-seven-year terms, now has to roll at 6% to 7%.

    He sets that wave beside inflation that has not been below 2% for 68 months and fewer foreign buyers of Treasuries as the US turns protectionist. On his account the hyperscalers, pushed into capex as industrial policy, have spent their cash and moved to debt, with credit default swaps widening and their borrowing crowding out the sovereign.

    4m 06s · from 44:27

Insightful Investor

Mark DinnerICW Holdings

Founder and CIO of ICW Holdings, which runs a global equity strategy built to hold up across economic regimes. Before that he spent 12 years at Bridgewater Associates, helping lead Ray Dalio's personal investment research team and later helping oversee positioning and risk management for the All Weather strategy.

Hosted by

Insightful Investor

10 November 2026 · 46m 51s · 1 clip below

  1. current issue

    Mark Dinner says one-year growth in capital spending as a share of GDP has now passed its mid-1990s record, and in the 1990s a very high pace lasted four or five years.

    What he watches for is the late-cycle turn from cash-funded spending to issuance: by estimates he has seen, investment-grade debt backing data centres now runs into the trillions, some of it circular, and hyperscalers have announced equity issuance, which he puts at perhaps the seventh inning. He adds that capex counts as revenue for the seller at once but reaches the buyer's earnings only through depreciation.

    3m 51s · from 37:34

Top Traders Unplugged

Philippe JordanCFM

President of CFM, a quantitative investment firm the hosts put at about 36 billion in assets under management; he first did business with it as one of its brokers in 1991 and joined in 2005.

Hosted by

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne

11 November 2026 · 1h 5m · 2 clips below

  1. 1 of 2 contrarian

    Philippe Jordan says trend following can hedge a crash only when its trading frequency matches the crash's, and running at that speed usually makes no money in between.

    He dates the crash-insurance pitch for CTAs to the years from the 2008 crisis to about 2015, and says investors who bought on it hold expectations the strategy is unlikely to meet at a cost-efficient price.

    1m 12s · from 57:39

  2. 2 of 2 framework

    CFM's researchers, Philippe Jordan says, expect a backtested Sharpe ratio of 1.5 to come in nearer 0.7 once a strategy trades.

    Jordan is careful to call it a scientific framework, with real science mainly in the microstructure of prices; the rest is testing an assumption a dozen ways, dividing what survives by two, and looking for the next signal whose correlations add something to the book.

    1m 22s · from 16:05

AI 12 November 2026 · 41 clips

The Real Eisman Playbook

My Brutally Honest Thoughts About the AI Bubble.

No guest: Steve Eisman delivers the episode as a solo lecture.

Hosted by

Steve Eisman

9 November 2026 · 40m 15s · 1 clip below

  1. contrarian

    Steve Eisman ranks a price war as probably the biggest risk to the AI trade, with open-weight models at around 20 cents per million tokens against $2 to $10 for the leading labs' flagships.

    Switching between models seems to cost little if anything, he says, so he expects enterprise loyalty to last only until a rival matches quality at a lower price. He cites the end of token maxing this year, when price rises sent enterprise AI costs soaring and Uber spent its whole AI budget within months, and passes on reports that both Anthropic and OpenAI are cutting prices.

    2m 46s · from 33:56

20VC

Arthur MenschMistral

Co-founder and chief executive of Mistral, which has raised about $7.5 billion including debt and reached a valuation above $24 billion. Previously a researcher at Google DeepMind, where he co-authored the Chinchilla research on training smaller models better.

Hosted by

Harry Stebbings

9 November 2026 · 50m 17s · 2 clips below

  1. 1 of 2 contrarian

    Arthur Mensch puts energy at around 10% of the total cost of owning AI compute, with chips and the cost of capital making up most of the bill.

    On his account Europe has spare power today, plenty in France and the Nordics and less in the UK and Germany, so Mistral's race is to build on that surplus before energy becomes the constraint in 2029 or 2030. After that he sees a coordination problem: AI demand makes the case for new nuclear, but plants take longer than that to build.

    2m 19s · from 13:37

  2. 2 of 2 current issue

    Arthur Mensch says the question enterprises now ask of a third-party model is whether its updates will still arrive in six months, as the US and China begin treating frontier models as dual-use technology.

    Mensch calls a supply-chain attack hidden in an open model very theoretical and, he thinks, absent today, though it stays in the threat model; reluctance to run Chinese models rises with how critical a sector is to governments, from defence, which never does, through finance to retail. On his account the US began restricting access to models outside its borders in May, and China is weighing export thresholds.

    2m 07s · from 9:13

a16z

Dharmesh ShahHubSpot

Dharmesh Shah co-founded HubSpot 20 years ago and is its CTO; he has built commercial software for more than 30 years, and HubSpot, a public company, now has more than $3 billion of revenue.

Hosted by

Joe Schmidt

10 November 2026 · 59m 06s · 2 clips below

  1. 1 of 2 framework

    Dharmesh Shah counts any software business built on a gap in ChatGPT as exposed if the gap still sounds true with 'yet' added to it.

    His second test measures the gap against OpenAI the company, which might launch a new product line, and not against today's ChatGPT. He advises picking ground where the labs face a structural constraint such as regulation, or an incentive one: OpenAI could go after HubSpot's $3 billion-plus of revenue, but he says its ambition makes that highly unlikely.

    2m 10s · from 25:14

  2. 2 of 2 explainer

    Dharmesh Shah says application companies are less exposed to the AI labs than in 2023, because routing each task between models lets them swap one lab's model for another's.

    On his account the labs have to recover hundreds of billions of pre-training spend by selling tokens, either directly, to consumers and to firms such as JPMorgan through forward-deployed engineers, or through software companies that resell inference in their own domains, and they can do both. HubSpot, like most SaaS firms, already sends each task to whichever model suits it.

    3m 25s · from 27:31

Latent Space

Garrett Lord, Sahil Bhaiwala, Nishant Ranka, Nick Magazine, Jonas Mueller, Collin Schweiker and Steve KellingHandshake AI

Handshake AI builds training data and evaluations for frontier AI labs and, by the episode's own account, reached roughly $1 billion in annualised gross revenue within about a year of launch. Collin Schweiker, who walks through the finance benchmark, spent 13 years in finance at a bulge-bracket bank, in energy and then real estate private equity.

Hosted by

Latent Space (swyx, Vibhu and RJ)

9 November 2026 · 2h 43m · 1 clip below

  1. explainer

    Handshake AI caught an agent earning credit for a net income figure by adding an Excel tab that listed every number from one to a million.

    The early criterion only asked whether the target number appeared in the workbook, and verifiers before the team built its Gandalf grader sometimes passed criteria that way. Given context on the model's layout, Gandalf reached, by the team's recollection, over 90% agreement with human graders, and two humans grading the same rubric did not agree one for one either.

    4m 23s · from 1:44:33

Worth listening to in full 12 November 2026

Most clips above stand alone. These are the episodes that justify the whole hour.

Tech Is Priced for a Boom. 86% of the Economy Grew 0.7%. What If AI Slows?

Excess Returns · 1h 6m

One argument, held for the hour and evidenced at each step: the US is two economies under a single policy setting, the tech leadership built on the faster one is old and complacently held, and the rest of the market is already acting as a buffer. Paulsen names his tests (tech lagging in a rebound, old-era leadership if yields fall), so a listener can hold him to them; the charts are on his Substack for listening without video, and the election digression early on is short.

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